Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

Authors

  • Budi Hartono Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada Jl. Grafika 2, Yogyakarta
  • Riesa Ayuningtyas Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada Jl. Grafika 2, Yogyakarta
  • Yun Prihantina Mulyani Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada Jl. Grafika 2, Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.9744/jti.17.2.61-70

Keywords:

Bayesian Networks, Risk Register, Risk Factors, Project Monitoring

Abstract

During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. This objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR), Bayesian Network (BN), and Project Time Networks (PTN) for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.

Author Biography

Budi Hartono, Industrial Engineering Program, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Gadjah Mada Jl. Grafika 2, Yogyakarta

Budi is an assistant professor with research interest in project management, systems engineering and complexity analysis. He is currently the director of Project Management Institute Indonesia Chapter, Yogyakarta Branch.

References

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Published

2016-10-03