Integrating Human Behavior and Safety Measure into Evacuation Route Planning in a Volcanic Crisis




evacuation route, disaster management, human behavior, volcanic crisis.


Many traditional methods in evacuation route planning are motivated by the operational objective, such as total travel/clearance time. Little attention has been given to the human factor and the safety aspect of the evacuees during the planning phase. Our study aims to propose a simple yet practical route planning method that simultaneously considers human behavior, safety factor, and the travel time in a volcanic crisis context. The planning model is developed based on the shortest-path problem with a joint-cost parameter representing the three aspects. We present a large-scale street network in Merapi volcano as a case study. The result implies that employing a joint-cost parameter is effective for creating an evacuation route that is reasonably safe and in line with human cognition in navigation. The finding offers practical insights for the stakeholders as part of the greater effort to develop a systematic disaster management plan.


E. T. W. Mei et al., “Lessons learned from the 2010 evacuations at Merapi volcano,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., no. 261, pp. 348–365, 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.03.010.

A. Stepanov and J. M. G. Smith, “Multi-objective evacuation routing in transportation networks,” Eur. J. Oper. Res., vol. 198, no. 2, pp. 435–446, 2009, doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2008.08.025.

S. F. Syiko, T. Ayu R, and A. Yudono, “Evacuation Route Planning in Mount Gamalama, Ternate Island-Indonesia,” Procedia Environ. Sci., vol. 17, pp. 344–353, 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.proenv.2013.02.047.

G. J. Lim, M. Rungta, and M. R. Baharnemati, “Reliability analysis of evacuation routes under capacity uncertainty of road links,” IIE Trans. (Institute Ind. Eng., vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 50–63, 2015, doi: 10.1080/0740817X.2014.905736.

A. Turner and N. Dalton, “A simplified route choice model using the shortest angular path assumption,” Present. Geocomputation 2005, 2005, [Online]. Available:

A. Jayasinghe, K. Sano, R. Kasemsri, and H. Nishiuchi, “Travelers’ Route Choice: Comparing Relative Importance of Metric, Topological and Geometric Distance,” Procedia Eng., vol. 142, pp. 18–25, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.02.008.

D. R. Montello, “The measurement of cognitive distance: Methods and construct validity,” J. Environ. Psychol., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 101–122, 1991, doi: 10.1016/S0272-4944(05)80071-4.

E. K. Sadalla and S. G. Magel, “The Perception of Traversed Distance,” Environ. Behav., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 65–79, 1980, doi: 10.1177/0013916580121005.

Y. Zhou, W. Wang, D. He, and Z. Wang, “A fewest-turn-and-shortest path algorithm based on breadth-first search,” Geo-Spatial Inf. Sci., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 201–207, 2014, doi: 10.1080/10095020.2014.988198.

B. Jiang and X. Liu, “Computing the fewest-turn map directions based on the connectivity of natural roads,” Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., vol. 25, no. 7, pp. 1069–1082, 2011, doi: 10.1080/13658816.2010.510799.

M. Duckham and L. Kulik, “‘Simplest’ Paths: Automated Route Selection for Navigation,” in Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 2003, vol. 2825, pp. 169–185, doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-39923-0.

E. Baou, V. P. Koutras, V. Zeimpekis, and I. Minis, “Emergency evacuation planning in natural disasters under diverse population and fleet characteristics,” J. Humanit. Logist. Supply Chain Manag., vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 447–446, 2018, doi: 10.1108/JHLSCM-11-2013-0041.

R. G. Golledge, “Path Selection and Route Preference in Human Navigation: A Progress Report,” Semmering, UCTC No. 277, 1995. doi: 10.1038/nnano.2017.155.

S. Zhu and D. Levinson, “Do people use the shortest path? An empirical test of wardrop’s first principle,” PLoS One, vol. 10, no. 8, pp. 1–18, 2015, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134322.

T. T. Pires, “An approach for modeling human cognitive behavior in evacuation models,” Fire Saf. J., vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 177–189, 2005, doi: 10.1016/j.firesaf.2004.10.004.

D. Lee, J. H. Park, and H. Kim, “A study on experiment of human behavior for evacuation simulation,” Ocean Eng., vol. 31, no. 8–9, pp. 931–941, 2004, doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2003.12.003.

X. Pan, C. S. Han, K. Dauber, and K. H. Law, “A multi-agent based framework for the simulation of human and social behaviors during emergency evacuations,” AI Soc., vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 113–132, 2007, doi: 10.1007/s00146-007-0126-1.

Jumadi, A. Heppenstall, N. Malleson, S. Carver, D. Quincey, and V. Manville, “Modelling Individual Evacuation Decisions during Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Volcanic Crisis in Merapi, Indonesia,” Geosciences, vol. 8, no. 6, p. 196, 2018, doi: 10.3390/geosciences8060196.

N. Ding and C. Sun, “Experimental study of leader-and-follower behaviours during emergency evacuation,” Fire Saf. J., vol. 117, p. 103189, Oct. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.firesaf.2020.103189.

E. T. W. Mei and F. Lavigne, “Mass evacuation of the 2010 Merapi eruption,” Int. J. Emerg. Manag., vol. 9, no. 4, p. 298, 2014, doi: 10.1504/ijem.2013.059871.

R. Wunderman, “Report on Merapi ( Indonesia ) — February 2011,” Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 36, no. 1, 2011.

Surono et al., “The 2010 explosive eruption of Java’s Merapi volcano-A ‘100-year’ event,” J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., vol. 241–242, pp. 121–135, 2012, doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.06.018.

J. D. Wasito, “Kebijakan Teknis Evakuasi,” Sleman, 2013. [Online]. Available:

G. Boeing, “OSMNX: New Methods for Acquiring, Constructing, Analyzing, and Visualizing Complex Street Networks,” SSRN Electron. J., vol. 65, p. UC Berkeley, Berkeley, 2016, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2865501.

G. Boeing, “Urban street network analysis in a computational notebook,” Region, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 39–51, 2019, doi: 10.18335/region.v6i3.278.

N. A. M. Sabri, A. S. H. Basari, B. Husin, and K. A. F. A. Samah, “The utilisation of dijkstra’s algorithm to assist evacuation route in higher and close building,” J. Comput. Sci., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 330–336, 2015, doi: 10.3844/jcssp.2015.330.336.

Y. He, Z. Liu, J. Shi, Y. Wang, J. Zhang, and J. Liu, “K-shortest-path-based evacuation routing with police resource allocation in city transportation networks,” PLoS One, vol. 10, no. 7, pp. 1–23, 2015, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131962.

W. Lu, L. D. Han, C. Liu, and K. Long, “A Multiple-Source, Nearest Destination, Shortest Path Problem in Evacuation Assignments,” 2014, no. April 2015, pp. 3691–3702, doi: 10.1061/9780784413623.353.