Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

Budi Hartono, Riesa Ayuningtyas, Yun Prihantina Mulyani




Abstract


During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. This objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR), Bayesian Network (BN), and Project Time Networks (PTN) for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.


Keywords


Bayesian Networks, Risk Register, Risk Factors, Project Monitoring

References


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The Journal is published by The Institute of Research & Community Outreach - Petra Christian University. It available online supported by Directorate General of Higher Education - Ministry of National Education - Republic of Indonesia.

©All right reserved 2016.Jurnal Teknik Industri, ISSN: 1411-2485, e-ISSN: 2087-7439

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